Hear from Colton Larsen, a Professional MBA student, about why he chose to study at Rice Business for its reputation and the resources to help him explore new opportunities and navigate the recruiting process. He shares how Rice fosters a culture of belonging and support, where he has felt welcomed and championed as a gay MBA student from day one. He also highlights the impact of Rice’s professors and the opportunities that come with studying in Houston, one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the United States. 

Hear from Executive MBA Denise Buckley on how her daughter’s MBA experience at Rice inspired her to pursue her own business degree. She reflects on the transformation she witnessed during her daughter’s journey, as well as her own appreciation for the supportive faculty, foundational curriculum and expansive network offered by Rice Business. Denise encourages prospective students to take the next step and apply — whether or not it seems like the “right time.”

Based on research by K. Ramesh and Gary Lind (University of Pittsburgh)

Key findings

• Search trends predict future retail revenue — up to three quarters ahead.
• Markets don’t fully price in search-based insights, especially before earnings announcements.
• Trading strategies using search data outperform traditional asset-pricing models by 2–3%.
• Analysts often underuse this data, resulting in predictable forecast errors.
• At the macro level, search trends closely track — and often lead — official retail sales and GDP.

Imagine being able to predict the future of retail sales — not with months-old economic reports, but with real-time digital breadcrumbs left behind by consumers. Thanks to new research from K. Ramesh (Rice Business) and Gary Lind (University of Pittsburgh), that future is already here.

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Their study shows that Google search trends are powerful predictors of consumer demand, capable of forecasting U.S. retail sales up to three quarters in advance. The implications span industries and audiences — from Wall Street traders to Main Street retailers, and from data-driven CFOs to curious business students.

A Smarter, Faster Crystal Ball for Retail Demand

Retail sales drive nearly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), making them one of the most important indicators of economic health. Yet traditional forecasting relies heavily on backward-looking data and broad economic indicators. Ramesh and Lind’s work offers a leap forward: search data from Google Trends — publicly available and easy to use — can offer a faster, more precise signal of where sales are headed.

“If you want to understand consumer demand,” says Ramesh, the Herbert S. Autrey Professor of Accounting at Rice Business, “look at what people are searching for — not just what companies report after the fact. These digital footprints can tell us where revenue is going, often before the market catches up.”

This low-cost approach stands in stark contrast to expensive alternatives, such as satellite images of parking lots, in-store foot traffic from mobile data, or retail scanner feeds — tools often reserved for hedge funds and large institutional investors. Google Trends offers a scalable, accessible option for anyone seeking insight into consumer behavior.

Why This Matters for Investors and Analysts

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The researchers analyzed search patterns for nearly 200 publicly traded U.S. retail companies between 2004 and 2019. They found that firms with rising search volumes tend to report higher revenues — often well before analysts or investors react.

In fact, investment strategies built around these trends earned 2–3% higher returns than traditional models would predict. And most of these gains were concentrated around earnings announcements — a sign that markets were slow to recognize what search data had already revealed.

The advantage is even more striking for companies that fly under Wall Street’s radar. For firms with limited analyst coverage, the predictive power of search data on stock performance was more than 80% stronger.

A New Tool for Analysts — If They’ll Use It

Despite the clear signal in the data, the study finds that analysts routinely fail to incorporate search-based insights into their forecasts. That gap translates into missed revenue predictions and market inefficiencies — which sophisticated investors can exploit.

“The search data are out there,” says Lind, a Rice Business Ph.D. ’19 graduate now on faculty at Pitt Business. “They’re public, powerful, and free. Analysts who ignore them are missing an opportunity.”

The impact of this research extends well beyond equity markets. By aggregating Google search data across the retail sector, the authors found strong alignment with U.S. Census retail sales figures and GDP trends. In other words, these digital signals reflect not just firm-level interest, but macroeconomic momentum.

“If you want to understand consumer demand,” says Ramesh, “look at what people are searching for — not just what companies report after the fact. These digital footprints can tell us where revenue is going, often before the market catches up.”

A Data Wake-Up Call

This makes search trends a potentially valuable early-warning system for policymakers, central banks, and anyone responsible for interpreting the economic landscape. During volatile or uncertain periods, such tools could offer precious foresight into shifting consumer behavior.

In a digital era where consumers research before they shop — whether online or in-store — it’s no surprise that their Google queries leave valuable clues. What’s surprising is how often businesses, investors, and even economists still overlook them, Ramesh says. “Search data is a goldmine. And it's just sitting there, waiting to be used.”

Written by Seb Murray

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Lind and Ramesh, “Using Internet Search Data to Predict Aggregate Retail Sales and Enhance Firm-Level Revenue Expectations,” Contemporary Accounting Research (April 2025): 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.13043.

In 2023, a quarter of U.S. consumers resided in a household that received either an overdraft fee or a non-sufficient funds (NSF) fee. 

Mobile banking apps promise convenience, but can they also help users make better financial decisions? A recent study by Bruce Carlin and research colleagues at Copenhagen Business School and Olin Business School at Washington University suggests they can — by aggregating information from all of a consumer’s accounts into a single accessible place. 

The researchers analyzed transaction data from an Icelandic financial aggregator and found that after the company released a mobile app version of their website, the financial habits of their customers improved, lowering the likelihood of incurring NSF fees. 

According to their paper, published in Review of Finance: 

1. NSF fees dropped by 38.4% within 24 months of the app’s release.
2. Certain groups benefited more — women, high-income individuals and baby boomers saw the biggest gains. So did those who incurred higher fees before the app’s introduction.
3. Information access — not education — drove better decisions. Consumers didn’t need notifications or nudges. Simply making financial data more accessible helped them avoid NSF fees. 

The key takeaway? If you want to cut down on costly overdraft fees, a mobile banking app may help. By reducing the friction of checking balances, these tools make it easier to stay on top of your finances — and keep more money in your pocket. 
 

Each year, an estimated 80,000 auto loan applications in the U.S. are denied to minority borrowers due to racial bias.

For millions of Americans, cars aren’t just a fun way to get around — they’re a necessity. They provide access to jobs, schools and essential services. They help build financial independence and unlock opportunities. 

Yet for many minority borrowers, the road to an auto loan is often littered with hidden costs. According to groundbreaking research published in The Review of Financial Studies, an estimated 80,000 auto loans are denied each year due to racial prejudice. 

In their study, Rice Business professors Alexander Butler and James Weston (along with Rice Business Ph.D. alum and University of Wisconsin professor Erik Mayer ’18) uncover troubling inequalities in America’s auto loan market. Using a dataset that spans over a decade, they find that Black and Hispanic borrowers face higher rejection rates and steeper borrowing costs than white borrowers, even when they have comparable credit profiles. 

What makes the auto loan market more susceptible to racial bias compared to other lending markets? 

Alexander Butler: Auto lending is unique because of how much it depends on direct personal interactions between borrower and lender. Unlike something like credit cards, which are mostly automated, a lot of these decisions happen face-to-face. That creates room for bias, even if it’s unintentional. 

James Weston: Exactly. And when you add in the fact that auto lending doesn’t have the same strict regulations as, say, a house mortgage, you can see how these disparities aren’t just possible — they’re almost baked into the system. It’s a perfect storm of personal discretion and lack of oversight. 

Your study shows that Black and Hispanic borrowers are less likely to default on loans despite facing higher costs and stricter standards. 

JW: This is one of the findings that confirms these loan rejections are not grounded in factors like creditworthiness. Rather, lenders are underestimating the creditworthiness of Black and Hispanic borrowers from the start. 

AB: Right, and that’s where it becomes so frustrating. These borrowers are being charged more and held to higher standards — not because they’re higher risk, but because of biased assumptions.

Your research highlights the impact of policies that have actually reduced racial disparities. What kinds of policies or practices could make the auto loan market more equitable? 

AB: It’s certainly a promising area for future research. But we know that between 2013 and 2018, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) increased antidiscrimination enforcement efforts, leading to a 60% decrease in the additional interest that minority borrowers pay on auto loans. But Congress nullified the initiative. 

JW: Accountability is key. Antidiscrimination policies like this make auto lenders think twice about how they treat borrowers. It’s certainly possible that bringing back that kind of oversight would help create a fairer system where everyone has the same shot. 
 

We live in an age of uncertainty — where global crises like pandemics, wars and natural disasters disrupt daily life. Yet, even in turbulent times, people must make choices about essentials — food, finances, health, shelter, etc. How do they determine the best course of action when the future is unclear? 

New research from Amit Pazgal, the Friedkin Professor of Management at Rice Business, and Yuanfang Lin, associate professor in the Department of Marketing and Consumer Studies at the University of Guelph, explores how uncertainty shapes consumer decision-making — especially when it comes to stockpiling behavior. 

The study, published in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, suggests that stockpiling behaviors — like the rush for toilet paper at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic — may stem not from irrational panic but rather from a rational response to an overwhelming and often conflicting information landscape. 

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More Information, More Action — Until It’s Too Much 

During the early days of the pandemic, consumers faced an avalanche of news — some of it contradictory. They sought out information to make sense of the crisis, adjusting behaviors accordingly. As uncertainty loomed, many chose to act, whether by stockpiling supplies, seeking vaccination or reassessing financial plans. 

As consumers gather more information, they are prone to take action. But at a certain point, the study shows, such benefits of gathering more information diminish, leading instead to decision-making paralysis. 

“Mass uncertainty can lead to purchasing behavior that seems irrational,” says Pazgal. “At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw people stockpiling toilet paper, without room to store it.” 

At a glance, these purchases seem illogical. COVID-19 is a respiratory virus, and an abundance of toilet paper won’t do you much good if you are having trouble breathing. Many studies frame this behavior as “panic-buying,” but Pazgal and Lin argue otherwise. 

The Danger of Information “Noise” 

Were people who stockpiled toilet paper in March 2020 reacting from lack of information? On the contrary, the study reveals that people who gathered larger amounts of information were actually more likely to engage in stockpiling early in the crisis. Instead of bringing clarity, too many conflicting perspectives created “noise,” making it harder for consumers to decide how to respond. 

The study underscores a crucial insight: having access to multiple perspectives may seem beneficial, but when those perspectives conflict, consumers struggle to make confident decisions. Instead, more consistent and reliable messaging helps people act efficiently and rationally in high-stakes situations. 

In other words, stockpiling toilet paper during COVID-19 was not an irrational response. Relatively little was known about the new virus, and much of the available information was contradictory. The researchers argue that consumers were doing the best they could with the information they had. Their decisions were driven by rational processing of the available information. 

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From Stockpiling to Strategic Messaging 

Pazgal’s research finds that greater consistency in the available information could have reduced the “noisiness” of a muddled media environment. When messaging is consistent, it is easier to make sense of, and it helps people reach the right decision quickly. 

The study’s theoretical model, validated with consumer spending data and a survey of 303 participants in Canada and the U.S., found that as public health messaging became clearer in 2020, consumer behavior shifted. Participants were asked about their purchasing behavior and how they gathered information about COVID-19, including their use of social media, how often they visited official government websites and how much they valued specific sources of information. 

As their information acquisition became more consistent, they stopped hoarding supplies and began buying masks and hand sanitizer. This shift underscored the role of well-structured, consistent communication in guiding public behavior. 

“Participants who relied on a wider range of sources were more likely to stockpile early in the pandemic,” Pazgal notes. “Paradoxically, their search for knowledge amplified uncertainty, leading them to make purchasing decisions based on perceived chaos rather than the actual situation.” 

The Importance of Information Consistency 

“People make the best decisions they can with the information they have, but that information is not always enough,” Pazgal says. “To make the right decisions, people need to have the right information, and it needs to be consistent.” 

Pazgal’s research provides insight into how government agencies and business organizations should communicate with the public during crises — whatever form they take. “Clear, consistent messaging across multiple platforms can help prevent unnecessary stockpiling,” says Pazgal. 

“When organizations provide clear, reliable information, they empower consumers to make smarter, more rational decisions.” 
 

If you knew my friend Scott Gale, you know the depth of his unwavering love for J.R.R. Tolkien’s “The Lord of the Rings” and how he truly embodied Gandalf’s words. Throughout his life and even in his death, Scott was deliberate in deciding how to invest each moment of time given to him on this Earth. 

Soaking up and relishing every ounce of his big, bold life, Scott was a force. A disruptor. He encapsulated ambition, drive and inspired every soul he met to not only challenge themselves but to think beyond our self-imposed limitations. Scott made things happen. He was a connector. 

From the moment you were in his orbit you felt this gravitational, magnetic pull. I felt it the day we were brought together. I felt it the day I had to say goodbye. 

Scott and I met the summer after I had earned my Executive MBA, a few years after he earned his. Already engrained in the fabric of Rice Business, Scott had signed on to be a host for the Rice Business podcast, “Owl Have You Know,” and was looking for a co-host to join him. He shared a text blast in a Rice Business chat, not about the podcast specifically, but regarding some “voiceover work.” I suspect he didn’t want to scare anyone off because if he had said “podcast host,” there’s a 100% chance I would have never responded. But I did respond, which led us to a lunch. In the first three minutes of that three-hour lunch, I knew I had just made a friend for life. 

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We talked about everything that afternoon. So much in common. So many coincidences. Our paths to Rice were different, but our shared motivation — to start something new, to take a risk — connected us. Little did we know our decision was going to change the trajectory of our lives. Rice was the catalyst that brought us together and gave me the gift of this beautiful, unexpected friendship. 

Scott told me about the love of his life, his beautiful wife, Nicole, and his four precious children. About his mom, JoAnna, who was now going back to school to earn the degree she had put on hold to raise her children. She was going to graduate in just a few months, and Scott was so proud he would be there to watch her walk across that stage. I felt like I had known him, and would know him, forever. 

I mentioned my broadcasting background and the fact that I had never hosted (or honestly listened to) a podcast. Looking me straight in the eye, he replied in his booming voice, with a smile, “Life’s about taking risks. And I think you have probably taken more than a few.” His assumption led me to laugh. “I hope I make you proud,” I said. He smiled back, “You already have. You’re sitting here with me, aren’t you? And we get to do something super cool together.” 

And … we did. 

“I do need to tell you something though, since we are friends now,” he paused. “I have Stage IV colon cancer. Not many know, and I would prefer it that way.” My body grew numb. All the air in my lungs escaped. I took a moment and just as my mouth started to open to speak, he stopped me. “I know this is a lot to drop on you, and if you don’t want to do this podcasting thing with me, that’s okay. I understand.” 

The person sitting in front of me, beaming with such life and overflowing with energy is going to beat this. He had to. 

Scott was engrained in ecosystems, not just at Rice Business or in Houston, but on a global scale. From launching Halliburton Labs, to being the founder of the Jones Student Association for Executives at Rice Business, to serving on its Alumni Association Board and the Rice Alliance Clean Energy Accelerator. Scott was a titan, remarkable in every way. A mentor, adviser and investor, Scott had this insatiable love for innovation. 

Though I met Scott at the end of his life, he changed the rest of mine. His struggles didn’t define him. He defined himself. He did things on his terms. In his time. And when the time came for him to step away, when he knew his time was coming to an end, he left us with a final powerful inspiring message of optimism and hope, which could have come from the words of Tolkien. 

“Now go out and live a life that echoes! Onward!” 

I will do my best, my friend. I hope I make you proud.

Hear more about Gale's lasting impact on our school in a special tribute episode of our podcast:

Step into Tommy Pan Fang’s office at McNair Hall, and you’ll find more than just a workspace. His office reflects his dynamic approach to teaching — blending research, strategy and interactive learning. Here are some of the objects he uses to transform abstract business concepts into memorable, real-world applications. 

• Lego bricks and board games. In Pan Fang’s office, ideas take shape, students think critically and strategy comes to life. Visitors might find themselves in a strategic duel over a board game or assembling a Lego model to explain a business insight. “The best lessons rarely come from textbooks alone,” he says. “I want students to leave my class with more than just knowledge — I want them to have the confidence to apply it.”
• A tote bag of two-liter sodas. Against the wall sits a mysterious tote bag of two-liter sodas — not an emergency caffeine stash, it turns out, but props for a hands-on lesson in market research and brand positioning. “You should see students’ faces when they hear we’re doing a taste test,” he chuckles. “But they’ll remember that lesson better than any slide deck.”
• Student thank-you cards and conference name tags. Markers of his career and relationships sit next to books by his mentors from Penn and Harvard, telling a clear story of his teaching and research journey. “The best ideas often come from conversations,” he says, “whether with students or peers. Those exchanges push my thinking and keep my work relevant.”
• Personal memorabilia of a global perspective. Pan Fang has always seen the world through a wide lens — probably because he grew up with one. Born in Canada and raised in China and Italy, he absorbed different cultures and ways of thinking. Next to his monitor are a llama figurine from Ecuador and a postcard from Rome. “A global perspective isn’t just about geography,” he says. “It’s about understanding different ways of solving problems and seeing the world.” 
  
  That philosophy is reflected in his office, a space designed for exploration. Whether it’s a board game that challenges strategic thinking, a Lego set that sparks creativity or an unexpected lesson involving soda, Pan Fang ensures business strategy isn’t just a way of thinking — it’s a way of experiencing and shaping the world. 

Learn more about Poets&Quants Best Undergraduate Business Professors ranking here.