Too Much Information — The Surprising Cause of “Panic Buying”

Based on research by Amit Pazgal and Yuanfang Lin (University of Guelph)

Key findings: 

• In times of uncertainty — whether during a pandemic, war, or environmental catastrophe — consumers seek information to guide their decisions, including whether to stockpile goods.
• Too many conflicting perspectives create “noise,” making it harder to determine the best course of action.
• Clearer, more consistent information helps consumers make decisions more efficiently.

We live in an age of uncertainty — where global crises like pandemics, wars and natural disasters disrupt daily life. Yet, even in turbulent times, people must make choices about essentials — food, finances, health, shelter, etc. How do they determine the best course of action when the future is unclear? 

Research by Amit Pazgal, Friedkin Professor of Management at Rice Business, and Yuanfang Lin (Associate Professor of Marketing, Lang Business School, University of Guelph) sheds light on how consumers update their beliefs and make purchasing decisions in uncertain environments. 

Their study, published in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, suggests that stockpiling behaviors — like the rush for toilet paper at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic — may stem not from irrational panic but from rational responses to an overwhelming and often conflicting information landscape.

More Information, More Action — Until It’s Too Much

During the early days of the pandemic, consumers faced an avalanche of news — some of it contradictory. They sought out information to make sense of the crisis, adjusting behaviors accordingly. As uncertainty loomed, many chose to act, whether by stockpiling supplies, seeking vaccination or reassessing financial plans. 

As consumers gather more information, they are prone to take action. But at a certain point, the study shows, such benefits of gathering more information diminish, leading instead to a kind of decision-making paralysis.

“Mass uncertainty can lead to purchasing behavior that seems irrational,” says Pazgal. “At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw people stockpiling toilet paper. Some people were buying twenty large bulk packs of toilet paper, without room to store it.”

At a glance, these purchases seem illogical. COVID-19 is a respiratory virus, and an abundance of toilet paper won’t do you much good if you are having trouble breathing. Many studies frame this behavior as “panic-buying,” but Pazgal and Lin argue otherwise. 

The Danger of Information “Noise”

Were people who stockpiled toilet paper in March 2020 reacting from lack of information? 

On the contrary, the study reveals that people who gathered larger amount of information were actually more likely to engage in stockpiling early in the crisis. Instead of bringing clarity, too many conflicting perspectives created “noise,” making it harder for consumers to decide how to respond.

The study underscores a crucial insight: having access to multiple perspectives may seem beneficial, but when those perspectives conflict, consumers struggle to make confident decisions. Instead, more consistent and reliable messaging helps people act efficiently and rationally in high-stakes situations. 

In other words, stockpiling toilet paper in the early days of COVID-19 was not an irrational response. Relatively little was known about the new virus, and much of the available information was contradictory. The researchers argue that consumers were doing the best they could with the information they had. Their decisions were driven by rational processing of the available information. 

From Stockpiling to Strategic Messaging

Pazgal’s research finds that greater consistency in the available information could have reduced the “noisiness” of a muddled media environment. When messaging is clear and consistent, it is easier to make sense of, and it helps people reach the right decision more quickly. 

The study’s theoretical model, validated with consumer spending data and a survey of 303 participants in Canada and the U.S., found that as public health messaging became clearer in 2020, consumer behavior shifted. Participants were asked about their purchasing behavior and how they gathered information about COVID-19, including their use of social media, how often they visited official government websites, and how much they valued specific sources of information. 

As their information acquisition became more consistent, they stopped hoarding supplies and began buying masks and hand sanitizer. This shift underscored the role of well-structured, consistent communication in guiding public behavior. 

“Participants who relied on a wider range of sources were more likely to stockpile early in the pandemic,” Pazgal notes. “Paradoxically, their search for knowledge amplified uncertainty, leading them to make purchasing decisions based on perceived chaos rather than the actual situation.”

The Importance of Information Consistency

“People make the best decisions they can with the information they have, but that information is not always enough,” Pazgal says. “To make the right decisions, people need to have the right information, and it needs to be consistent.”

Pazgal’s research provides insight into how government agencies and business organizations should communicate with the public during crises — whatever form they take.

“Clear, consistent messaging across multiple platforms can help prevent unnecessary stockpiling,” says Pazgal. “When organizations provide clear, reliable information, they empower consumers to make smarter, more rational decisions.”

Lin and Pazgal, “Effects of information quantity and diversity on consumers under complex uncertainty.” Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 77 (2024): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2023.103652.