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Congratulations to Caroline Mazur-Sarocka for being named one of Poets&Quants Best & Brightest Undergraduate Business Majors Of 2025.
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Autocracy Is on the Move and Becoming More Resilient

The first year of Georgia’s “foreign agent” law shows how autocracies are replicating Russian model − and speeding up the time frame.
Ethics and Society
Ethics and Society
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Global Politics

The first year of Georgia’s “foreign agent” law shows how autocracies are replicating Russian model − and speeding up the time frame. 

Originally published in The Conversation

By Anastasiya Zavyalova (Rice Business) and Christopher A. Hartwell (ZHAW School of Management and Law)

“Georgia’s experience, following the Russian playbook, illustrates how authoritarians are learning from each other, utilizing the rule of law itself against democracy.”

Autocracy is on the move worldwide and becoming more resilient.

One of the driving forces behind this phenomenon is something scholars call “authoritarian learning,” a process by which autocratic leaders study each other and adapt tactics based on what appears to work, and how to proceed when they encounter resistance.

Take Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream party has steered the Caucasus nation from a path toward democracy back to autocracy – and it has done so by learning from Russia. In particular, it adopted a “foreign agent” law in May 2024 – legislation that came straight from Vladimir Putin’s playbook.

Sold to the public as increasing transparency, the legislation has been utilized to persecute Georgia’s opposition and arrest dissidents with impunity.

As researchers examining the structure and effects of autocratic regimes, we view Georgia’s first year of its foreign agent law as an example of how politicians are not only learning the tactics of Russian authoritarianism but improving on them in a shorter time frame.

Bouncing from Europe to Russia

Georgia’s current ruling party came to power after then-President Mikheil Saakashvili enacted a major series of reforms in the 2000s. Saakashvili, who was jailed in 2021 under highly contested charges, inherited a Georgia seen as a failing and corrupt state tethered to Russia.

The reform-minded politicians of Saakashvili’s government set the country on a pro-Western path. But after Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, a socially conservative coalition under the banner Georgian Dream won the parliamentary elections in 2012.

Where is Georgia?
Map of Georgia

Georgian Dream was buoyed by the fortune of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, a Russian citizen until 2011. The party capitalized on the public’s fatigue after a decade of Saakashvili’s necessary but intense reforms. The new coalition married a promise for continuing the pro-Western reforms, but with a more traditional, conservative approach to social issues.

This appeal to traditional Georgian values won support in rural communities and carried the coalition to an absolute majority in Parliament in 2016. Since then, Georgian Dream has adopted pro-Russian rhetoric, accusing a “global war party” of running the West. Increasing attacks on the European Union, in particular, have been a part of a broader strategy to bring Georgia back into Russia’s orbit.

The Georgian Dream progression in power has mirrored that of Putin in Russia. In 2012, Putin signed a “foreign agents” law that originally targeted NGOs receiving foreign funding and alleged to be engaged in political activity.

The Kremlin equated this law to the 1938 Foreign Agents Registration Act, or FARA, in the United States, and justified it as a means to increase transparency around foreign involvement in Russia’s internal affairs.

Unlike FARA, however, Russia’s version of the law neither required establishing a connection between foreign funding and political activity nor provided a clear definition of political activity.

This vagueness allowed for a wide range of NGOs deemed undesirable by the Kremlin to be labeled as “foreign agents.” The result was the suppression of NGO activities through financial, administrative and legal burdens that led to their liquidation or departure from the country.

Over the years, this law has reduced Russian civil society’s ability to independently voice and address issues that its population faces.

Yearlong slide into autocracy

Georgian Dream passed a very similar foreign agent law on May 28, 2024, after overcoming a presidential veto. It forced NGOs receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register with the Ministry of Justice as “serving the interests of a foreign power.”

Activists opposing the law have been physically assaulted, and the law has been utilized against what the ruling party has described as “LGBT propaganda.”

The law fits a wider political landscape in which the ruling party has moved to restrict freedom of the press, prosecuted political opponents and postponed Georgia’s European Union candidate status despite the overwhelming majority of Georgians being pro-EU.

Improving on Russian authoritarians

Three critical factors played a role in allowing for the foreign agent law in Russia to expand its reach: the power imbalance between the Russian government and NGOs, limited action by international authorities, and delayed media attention to the issue.

Georgia flag

At the time the law was passed, civil society inside Russia itself was split. Some foresaw the dangers of the law and engaged in collective action to oppose it, while others chose to wait and see.

As it happened, the law and the accompanying repressive apparatus spread to a broader range of targets. In 2015, Putin signed a law that designated an “undesirable” status to foreign organizations “on national security grounds”; in 2017, an amendment expanded the targets of the law from NGOs to mass media outlets; and at the end of 2019, the law allowed the classification of individuals and unregistered public associations – that is, groups of individuals – as mass media acting as foreign agents. By July 2022, the foreign funding criterion was excluded and a status of a foreign agent could be designated to anyone whom the Russian authorities deemed to be “under foreign influence.”

Russia’s experience highlights the process of early stages of authoritarian consolidation, when state power quashes independent sources of power, and political groups and citizens either rally around the government or go silent. The foreign agent law in Russia was passed only after the protests that accompanied the 2012 elections, which returned Putin to the presidency for the third term.

In Georgia, the ruling government borrowed from Russia’s lead – after backing down from its first attempt to pass a foreign agent law in the face of massive protests, it pushed it through before the elections.

The law was then used to raid NGOs sympathetic to the opposition days before the October 2024 parliamentary election. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said before the elections that in the event of Georgian Dream’s victory, it would look to outlaw the pro-Western opposition, naming them “criminal political forces.”

In the wake of President Donald Trump’s suspension of USAID assistance in February 2025, Georgian Dream has seized the opportunity to expand its war on civil society, echoing Russian, Chinese and American far-right conspiracy rhetoric that foreign-funded NGOs were fomenting revolution. To combat such phantoms, Georgian Dream has passed new legislation that criminalizes assembly and protest.

A springboard for repression

The foreign agent law has been a springboard for repressive activities in both Russia and Georgia, but while it took Russia a decade to effectively use the law to crush any opposition, Georgian Dream is working on an expedited timetable.

Although the EU has suspended direct assistance and closed off visa-free travel for Georgian officials as a result of the law, Trump’s turn toward pro-Russian policies has made it more difficult to obtain Western consensus in dislodging the Georgian government from its authoritarian drift.

Georgia’s experience, following the Russian playbook, illustrates how authoritarians are learning from each other, utilizing the rule of law itself against democracy.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Rice Executive MBA student Shai Littlejohn is no stranger to reinvention. From law to music — and now, corporate counsel for one of the world’s most recognizable brands — she has built a career on embracing challenges and following her passions.

As director and corporate counsel for global supply chain & innovation at Starbucks, Shai recently spoke at Rice Business' annual Women in Leadership Conference about the evolving legal landscape in Texas.

After the panel, she sat down with Owl Have You Know co-host Brian Jackson ’21 to talk about her dynamic career path, the lessons she’s learned across industries, why she chose to pursue an Executive MBA at Rice and how she’s already applying insights from the program in her career.

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  • [00:00]Brian Jackson: Welcome to Owl Have You Know, a podcast from Rice Business. This episode is part of our Pivot Series, where guests share stories of transformation in their lives and careers.

    Shai Littlejohn’s career is a masterclass in bold moves and unexpected pivots. As director in corporate counsel for global supply chain and innovation at Starbucks and a singer-songwriter, she’s navigated law, business, and music with a fearless approach to change.

    In this special episode recorded during the Women in Leadership Conference at Rice Business, we dive into her journey, the biggest legal challenges facing companies today and how the Executive MBA program is shaping her perspective. And, of course, I couldn’t let her go without asking about her go-to Starbucks order. Stay tuned to find out what keeps her fueled.

    Today, we're joined by Shai Littlejohn. We're here at Rice Business. The Women in Leadership Conference is happening downstairs. You know, off the bat, what's the atmosphere? What does it feel like to be a part of the conference?

    [01:04]Shai Littlejohn: It's inspiring, high energy, so many wonderful women that are just so many different talented people across different industries. So, I'm excited to be here and meet some new people.

    [01:16]Brian Jackson: And the stories, I find the stories to be so inspiring and incredible.

    [01:20]Shai Littlejohn: Yeah, they are. They are. I mean, I've met probably 30 people already that I've had little mini stories. We're connecting on LinkedIn. We're going to be getting together at some point, hopefully. And we're really trying to focus on networking and community building because that's what we need to do to, kind of, create more space, room for women in these corporations in America, entrepreneurial opportunities, things like that. So, we're going to help uplift each other to get there.

    [01:43]Brian Jackson: I think of you and your background, you've had such a breadth of experience. And you went law, music, law, and you've also pivoted a bit in between. You know, as you're approaching these discussions, do you find having those past experiences, that creative thought, you know, kind of, helps you to really engage?

    [02:03]Shai Littlejohn: Yes, I do, especially because I moved around a bit geographically. So, I grew up in Ohio, but then I went to law school and undergrad in Washington, D.C., where people tend to be a little bit more informed about government and how it works because they work there in the government offices and in the surrounding corporations.

    [02:22]Brian Jackson: Proximity bias.

    [02:22]Shai Littlejohn: Their proximity bias. And then, and people respond differently to each other, especially across both sides of the aisle. You have, you're attending a lot of the same events. It's not the, sort of, negative-spirited environment that we find a lot now on social media.

    Then, I moved from there to Nashville, Tennessee. So, in Nashville, there's, you know, a little bit of a blue area, but in a red state. And there's a lot of people with a lot of different viewpoints, but I had never lived in the South. So, that was a different experience for me.

    And then leaving there and then coming to Houston back to a major city, where there's a lot of different diversity in the city that Nashville did not have, but Washington D.C. did have, I'd say I probably prefer D.C. and Houston. I'm a big city type of person.

    [03:09]Brian Jackson: Or metropolitan, some might say.

    [03:10]Shai Littlejohn: I'm a metropolitan woman.

    [03:11]Brian Jackson: There we go.

    [03:11]Shai Littlejohn: I'm a metropolitan woman. That’s it.

    [03:12]Brian Jackson: So, what brought you to law? What inspired you? I mean, really, to me, I think it's a career where it has a calling, some people would say.

    [03:21]Shai Littlejohn: So, the calling for me was my dad begging me to go to law school all my life. So, I grew up in Ohio. And at the time, you know, I saw doctors, lawyers, teachers, dentists. That was about it. And so, I never considered other opportunities, really. My father was a lawyer. He grew up in South Carolina. That was his way out of poverty — to moved to Ohio and then get into the middle class. My dad ended up being elected judge in Dayton, Ohio. He encouraged my mother to go to law school when I was, I think I was maybe three years old or so when my mother went to law school. So, this, kind of, ran in the family. And my dad said, “You can do anything you want to do after you go to law school.” And he told me that a million times. And so, I just always knew that I was going to go. I'm very close to my dad, so I didn't want to disappoint him, but I also didn't have an idea for exactly what else I wanted to pursue. So, I was fine to just go from high school to undergrad to law school, as if it was just natural for me.

    [04:19]Brian Jackson: Yeah. So, going home for family dinner, you actually maybe had to brief a bit, prepare both sides of the argument.

    [04:24]Shai Littlejohn: My first job was working in my dad's law practice before he became a judge. And I just filed papers and answered the phones in exchange for cheeseburgers and candy.

    [04:34]Brian Jackson: Law clerking. It's the way to figure out if you want to do it or not. So, from law, music, was music your way of, kind of, saying, “Okay, I'm going to go do my own thing?”

    [04:45]Shai Littlejohn: Well, no. So, I was a… I always loved music. And I sang in choirs. And I've had a little acapella group in high school and things, so I always loved music, but I never saw it as a potential occupation. The musicians I knew, they were probably struggling, I would say, financially. And I never wanted that sort of lifestyle. So, I liked the creative element of it, but I didn't want to be a starving artist.

    And so, I actually, I don't know that I was conscious of that when I was younger. It's just that I never saw it as a career path. But as I got older, I kept saying, “I've always wanted to make my own music. I've always wanted to write songs and things.” And it really took the illness of my mother to really trigger that decision that I needed to do everything I wanted to do in life and not just focus on a career.

    So, I wasn't really loving my law career in D.C. I was having some success in it, but I was working all the time and I felt like I had no time for anything else except to meet my friends for dinner at, you know, 8:00 at night or something after working a long day. And my mother ended up being diagnosed with glioblastoma. And she was being treated here at MD Anderson. And when… and one time, she was getting really progressed in her illness, came out of remission and she was, you know, at this point, terminal.

    And she said to me, you know, “I've done everything I want to do with my life.” Just basically telling me, “This is all okay.” And I thought, “There's no way I could say that today, because all I've done is work jobs where I was performing well but I wasn't really enjoying it. I just felt like something was keeping me from the things I would enjoy. And I knew that music was one of those things.” And so, from that time, I said, “I got to figure out a way to incorporate things in my life so that I could, too, could say that I've done everything I wanted to do.

    [06:34]Brian Jackson: So, how do you push back? I mean, you're having professional success, you're recognizing, “Okay, on the personal front, I need to carve out the time.” How do you start to do that? I feel like, once the job's crept in, it's hard to push it back out.

    [06:48]Shai Littlejohn: Yeah. So, I had, it was a couple of things. One, the illness; but then, also, I was in a work situation where I had a manager who was not the best, wasn't my favorite. And I knew that I wanted to leave that position. And so, I decided that I was going to do a summer vacation. Like I said, I’m going to take a summer vacation break first, decide what I'm going to do.

    So, I was Googling of summer music teacher thinking I could finally, you know, spend the week doing something like. And Berkeley College of Music came up in my search. And I thought, “Oh, I could go there for the summer program for a week and just have fun.” And so, I did and had the time of my life. Time of my life.

    And then I came back. You know, maybe a month later, I'm on the phone with one of my friends and, you know, having that, “Do you like your career? No. Do you like your career? No.” And she said, “Well, you have so much fun at Berkeley. Why don't you go there full time?” And something just, kind of, clicked. And while I'm on the phone with her, I write out the college essay. I, like, fill out, you know, all of the questions. And then I hit, put my credit card in, hit submit, and then they invited me to audition. And then I thought, “I could actually do this. If I rent out my house and get a place in Boston, I could start my own law practice and then I could go to school and I could commute back and forth and this'll work.”

    And so, I said, “Okay, if I get admitted and I rent out my house, then I'm going to do it.” So, I got… I went to Boston for the audition. A week or two later, I was admitted. Then, maybe a week or two after that, I was able to get renters from my house. And I was like, “Well, I guess I'm going.” So, I quit my job and started my practice. Yeah.

    [08:31]Brian Jackson: Just a tremendous amount of courage.

    [08:34]Shai Littlejohn: Well, it took a lot of courage, but I don't know, I think I was in a strange place back then. Like, I was worried about my mom, but also very motivated. I didn't like the job I was working in. And I didn't want to have regrets. And I think her illness made me think about what regrets I might have if I don't, like, take the opportunity to do something now.

    [08:54]Brian Jackson: So, it's purpose-driven. What that purpose is can be parts of so many different things.

    [09:00]Shai Littlejohn: Yeah. Mm-hmm.

    [09:01]Brian Jackson: So, you're a singer. What type of genre?

    [09:03]Shai Littlejohn: Well, so, I'd say, call it singer-songwriter. A lot of it comes out as, like, a pop, folky, folky like roots, kind of, a little country, all of those things mixed in into one. Little bluesy, sometimes. 

    [09:16]Brian Jackson: Nice. I feel bad for the folks in church who are near me within a couple miles. When I sing, it's not pretty. So. I won't be.

    [09:23]Shai Littlejohn: Well, I have a gospel singing background, although I never sounded like the gospel singers at my church. I was never a strong lead for that kind of music. But I love it.

    [09:32]Brian Jackson: I sing into the book, try to, you know, vibrate against that nowhere else. So, now, you're at Starbucks. Could you tell me about your position there and, kind of, you know, what brought you to Starbucks?

    [09:44]Shai Littlejohn: So, I was working prior to that for a diversified energy company in Tennessee. I ended up moving to Tennessee because I thought, “I can't keep paying this Berkeley tuition. I already have my degrees. So, I'm going to just start commuting between Nashville and D.C.” And I started picking up clients in Nashville and then did, instead of commuting from Boston and Berkeley to D.C., I started commuting from Nashville to D.C. This was about five years of commuting, by the way.

    [10:14]Brian Jackson: God.

    [10:16]Shai Littlejohn: And so, then, I was at Delek, a company called Delek. And from there, I decided I wanted to move to Houston. And so, I thought, “I need to find...” In the remote jobs, it was pandemic time, right? So, remote jobs were starting to come online. And I thought, “If I could find a remote role, then I could move to Houston and be near my family.” And that's what I did. I applied to Starbucks because they had some remote openings. And that's how I switched from the oil industry to the coffee business.

    [10:45]Brian Jackson: So, if you had to have one line to it, what's the biggest difference between oil and gas and coffee?

    [10:50]Shai Littlejohn: Culture.

    [10:52]Brian Jackson: Culture?

    [10:52]Shai Littlejohn: Corporate culture. Yeah. I mean, Starbucks has a very unique corporate culture, which I hope will continue to be unique, because… but, you know, you have to balance culture with productivity. And I think a lot of companies don't get that right. And I think it's very difficult to get that balance right, work-life balance plus productivity in the company. But, so, Delek and that business was just more smaller, much smaller company, too. Yeah. They were about, you know, less than $2 billion versus Starbucks over $100 billion.

    [11:27]Brian Jackson: Yeah. I mean, y'all are everywhere.

    [11:28]Shai Littlejohn: Yeah.

    [11:30]Brian Jackson: Your stage of your career now, and you're pursuing an Executive MBA at Rice. I want to know, how are you balancing your time? And when you're done, how do you, what do you think you're going to do with all that extra time that you would've typically earmarked for the program?

    [11:45]Shai Littlejohn: Yeah. So, it has been very challenging on the time management piece. It's helped that I have a remote role. And so, I don't have to travel a ton. But it's been challenging because it's, you know, essentially, four classes while I'm in working full-time. But it's been really great because of the cohort I'm in. My classmates are fantastic. That's one of the things that's difficult to juggle, all of our social events, because we've become really great friends, which I love. And being newer to Houston, I've only been here a little over three years now, it's been a welcome community. Rice has been a welcome community to be a part of.

    But the coursework is challenging, and it's something I've always wanted to do. That's why it was on my bucket list to study business. Being a lawyer, you're constantly advising on risk mitigation. And it takes you to put on a different hat to be able to take risks and be an entrepreneur.

    And so, even a lot of times, I will study different businesses that I think I might want to enter. And I'll think of all the reasons why I should not enter that business. And so, this program will help me to see the opportunities more, not just a risk.

    [12:59]Brian Jackson: Yeah, to recognize. I mean, it's… I'm a JD/MBA. And to me, it's a perfect cross-pollination of, yes, understanding risk, but then maybe the business side is, how do you mitigate it? And how do you turn it into something profitable?

    I'd like to talk about, you know, the experience of going through the Executive MBA program while also holding a senior role at Starbucks. And could you tell me about, you know, the opportunities you're seeing to apply what you're learning in the classroom to real-world business opportunities?

    [13:28]Shai Littlejohn: Sure. I'm already using what I'm learning. So, I support our global supply chain organization, the research and development and innovation team, and our commercial team. So, a lot of the capital projects that we do at Starbucks are things I advise on, and also some of our ESG program.

    So, I negotiate a lot with our sourcing team on supply agreements, things like capital equipment purchases. Some of the innovation work that we do will… we have engineers on staff that invent equipment. And we'll have to negotiate development agreements with different equipment manufacturers so that those inventions come to life.

    And in doing so, we might negotiate, say, warranty terms. And I understand now, through my accounting course, why reserves for warranties would be something on the mind of the business person that I'm negotiating with. And that's not something I had insight to before. So, I was very familiar with all the legal protections that I wanted to get into that contract. But I wasn't always clear on what the businesses were fighting over, you know, what made them want to secure certain terms in their contracts. Now, I understand a lot more about the timing and payment terms and the benefits there. So, I become a stronger negotiator because I'm more knowledgeable through the Rice program.

    [14:49]Brian Jackson: You understand the variables at play and why they matter. And I like to look at the break points, my counterparty. And I'll map them out and say, “Okay, seven's going to break them, but they'll likely take three. And then I try to push for seven.”

     

    [15:03]Shai Littlejohn: Yeah. Right. Yeah.

    [15:06]Brian Jackson: But I didn't know why I was pushing for it. So, I think that's a great example of, like, actually understanding why it's applicable. So, being a woman in business, what does an event like Welk, you know, mean to you?

    [15:17]Shai Littlejohn: So, being a woman in business is exciting, and being at this conference is just really invigorating because there's opportunity all around us. No matter what's going on in the world, we, women, have so much potential and opportunity that we can pursue. And so, this group is ready to do that and I'm so excited to be a part of them.

    [15:35]Brian Jackson: I think it's totally inspirational. So, if you had a hope for one thing that the attendees today would take with them, what would that be?

    [15:45]Shai Littlejohn: That they have to decide what they want and just go for it. You know, it's like, if the law doesn't… you can't look for laws necessarily to help you all the time or look for the environment or time to be right. We have talent that we can bring to the table. We have ideas. And nothing can stop that. We just have to keep putting them out there. You're not going to always get, you know, the reception you want. But that can't stop you from just trying and going for it.

    So, I see entrepreneurs in the room. I see future corporate executives here. And it's really exciting to see. And as long as we believe in ourselves and keep pushing and advancing, it's going to happen. I'm an optimist. I believe it's going to happen.

    [16:25]Brian Jackson: I love the optimism and supporting each other. I think that's what this is about. It's about being there and offering that background and actually propelling others to do more. To wrap it up, you're at Starbucks. I have to know, what is your go-to coffee order?

    [16:41]Shai Littlejohn: So, my favorite taste at Starbucks is the chocolate cold foam. So, anything you can put the cold foam on, I could eat that in spoonfuls. Like, that is some good stuff. And so, yeah, so, I take a cool brew with the cold foam.

    [16:56]Brian Jackson: Okay. I'll try it next Monday.

    [16:59]Shai Littlejohn: Yeah, you got to try it. You got to try it.

    [16:59]Brian Jackson: I'm a plain Jane Americano type of person or a latte. So, [crosstalk 17:03].

    [17:03]Shai Littlejohn: Yeah, we saw those, too. Lots of them.

    [17:07]Brian Jackson: Well, thank you so much for joining me, Shai. It's been such a pleasure. And yeah, very happy to have met you.

    [17:12]Shai Littlejohn: Thank you. Same here.

    [17:14]Brian Jackson: Thanks for listening. This has been Owl Have You Know, a production of Rice Business. You can find more information about our guests, hosts, and announcements on our website, business.rice.edu.

    Please subscribe and leave a rating wherever you find your favorite podcast. We'd love to hear what you think. The hosts of Owl Have You Know are myself, Brian Jackson, and Maya Pomroy.

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Flexibility was key. At the time, I was based in West Texas, testing rocket engines at Blue Origin. An online program was the only realistic way for me to pursue an MBA. But for me, it wasn’t about the format — it was about access to knowledge and mentorship. My goal was to solve the ‘How do I become an entrepreneur?’ puzzle. Whether online or on campus, I knew Rice had the answer.”

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Get To Know His Motivations for Pursuing Our Online MBA and Its Impact: 

What was my original motivation for joining the program? 

I’ve always had an entrepreneurial passion and believed I had the skillset to be one. But the biggest question was ‘HOW do I become an entrepreneur?’ That was my driving motivation for joining the program. By the end of it, I found my answer — and Rice made it possible. The program gave me the pathway I was searching for, and looking back, it was one of the best decisions I’ve made. 

Why an online program? 

Flexibility was key. At the time, I was based in West Texas (Van Horn), testing rocket engines at Blue Origin. An online program was the only realistic way for me to pursue an MBA. But for me, it wasn’t about the format — it was about access to knowledge and mentorship. My goal was to solve the “How do I become an entrepreneur?” puzzle. Whether online or on campus, I knew Rice had the answer. 

How did Rice become my program of choice? 

Rice is #1 in entrepreneurship, and I’m from Houston — so that made my decision easy. With my goal of becoming an entrepreneur, Rice was the obvious choice. Looking back, I couldn’t have picked a better school to help me make the leap from engineering to business ownership. 

What am I bringing to my new business from the MBA program? 

Honestly, I use everything I learned at Rice on a daily basis — financial modeling, negotiation strategies, marketing, operational frameworks, leadership development, process standardization, cost optimization — you name it. More than anything, the MBA helped sharpen my decision-making skills. It changed how I approach challenges and create solutions, and that impact is felt in every part of running All-Rite Sheet Metal.

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Too Much Information — The Surprising Cause of “Panic Buying”

In times of crisis, information overload can drive seemingly irrational stockpiling behavior — but calling it “panic buying” misses the bigger picture.
Operations Management
Rice Business Wisdom
Crisis Management
Peer-Reviewed Research
Crisis Resilience

In times of crisis, information overload can drive seemingly irrational stockpiling behavior — but calling it “panic buying” misses the bigger picture.

Three televisions, each with a different product: toilet paper, hand sanitizer, and bottled water
Three televisions, each with a different product: toilet paper, hand sanitizer, and bottled water

Based on research by Amit Pazgal and Yuanfang Lin (University of Guelph)

Key findings: 

  • In times of uncertainty — whether during a pandemic, war, or environmental catastrophe — consumers seek information to guide their decisions, including whether to stockpile goods.
  • Too many conflicting perspectives create “noise,” making it harder to determine the best course of action.
  • Clearer, more consistent information helps consumers make decisions more efficiently.

 

We live in an age of uncertainty — where global crises like pandemics, wars and natural disasters disrupt daily life. Yet, even in turbulent times, people must make choices about essentials — food, finances, health, shelter, etc. How do they determine the best course of action when the future is unclear? 
Television showing toilet paper roll, with chyron that says "News"

Research by Amit Pazgal, Friedkin Professor of Management at Rice Business, and Yuanfang Lin (Associate Professor of Marketing, Lang Business School, University of Guelph) sheds light on how consumers update their beliefs and make purchasing decisions in uncertain environments. 

Their study, published in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, suggests that stockpiling behaviors — like the rush for toilet paper at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic — may stem not from irrational panic but from rational responses to an overwhelming and often conflicting information landscape.

More Information Means More Action — To a Point

During the early days of the pandemic, consumers faced an avalanche of news — some of it contradictory. They sought out information to make sense of the crisis, adjusting behaviors accordingly. As uncertainty loomed, many chose to act, whether by stockpiling supplies, seeking vaccination or reassessing financial plans. 

As consumers gather more information, they are prone to take action. But at a certain point, the study shows, such benefits of gathering more information diminish, leading instead to a kind of decision-making paralysis.

“Mass uncertainty can lead to purchasing behavior that seems irrational,” says Pazgal. “At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw people stockpiling toilet paper. Some people were buying twenty large bulk packs of toilet paper, without room to store it.”

At a glance, these purchases seem illogical. COVID-19 is a respiratory virus, and an abundance of toilet paper won’t do you much good if you are having trouble breathing. Many studies frame this behavior as “panic-buying,” but Pazgal and Lin argue otherwise. 

The Danger of Information “Noise”

Were people who stockpiled toilet paper in March 2020 reacting from lack of information? 

On the contrary, the study reveals that people who gathered larger amount of information were actually more likely to engage in stockpiling early in the crisis. Instead of bringing clarity, too many conflicting perspectives created “noise,” making it harder for consumers to decide how to respond.

 

“Clear, consistent messaging across multiple platforms can help prevent unnecessary stockpiling,” says Pazgal. “When organizations provide clear, reliable information, they empower consumers to make smarter, more rational decisions.”

 

The study underscores a crucial insight: having access to multiple perspectives may seem beneficial, but when those perspectives conflict, consumers struggle to make confident decisions. Instead, more consistent and reliable messaging helps people act efficiently and rationally in high-stakes situations. 

In other words, stockpiling toilet paper in the early days of COVID-19 was not an irrational response. Relatively little was known about the new virus, and much of the available information was contradictory. The researchers argue that consumers were doing the best they could with the information they had. Their decisions were driven by rational processing of the available information. 

From Stockpiling to Strategic Messaging

Pazgal’s research finds that greater consistency in the available information could have reduced the “noisiness” of a muddled media environment. When messaging is clear and consistent, it is easier to make sense of, and it helps people reach the right decision more quickly. 

Five televisions with a different product on each

The study’s theoretical model, validated with consumer spending data and a survey of 303 participants in Canada and the U.S., found that as public health messaging became clearer in 2020, consumer behavior shifted. Participants were asked about their purchasing behavior and how they gathered information about COVID-19, including their use of social media, how often they visited official government websites, and how much they valued specific sources of information. 

As their information acquisition became more consistent, they stopped hoarding supplies and began buying masks and hand sanitizer. This shift underscored the role of well-structured, consistent communication in guiding public behavior. 

“Participants who relied on a wider range of sources were more likely to stockpile early in the pandemic,” Pazgal notes. “Paradoxically, their search for knowledge amplified uncertainty, leading them to make purchasing decisions based on perceived chaos rather than the actual situation.”

The Importance of Information Consistency

“People make the best decisions they can with the information they have, but that information is not always enough,” Pazgal says. “To make the right decisions, people need to have the right information, and it needs to be consistent.”

Pazgal’s research provides insight into how government agencies and business organizations should communicate with the public during crises — whatever form they take.

“Clear, consistent messaging across multiple platforms can help prevent unnecessary stockpiling,” says Pazgal. “When organizations provide clear, reliable information, they empower consumers to make smarter, more rational decisions.”

Written by Ty Burke

Line of televisions with medical masks on screen

Lin and Pazgal, “Effects of information quantity and diversity on consumers under complex uncertainty.” Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 77 (2024): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2023.103652.

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Leadership Beyond the Classroom: Ali Athar’s Journey with Rice Business Board Fellows

Student Stories
Student Stories
Student Stories
Leadership

Ali Athar EMBA '25 reflects on his transformative journey through Rice's EMBA program. He also shares his hands-on experience in nonprofit leadership with Rice Business Board Fellows.

TELL US ABOUT YOUR CURRENT ROLE AND CAREER JOURNEY.

I’m a seasoned finance executive with nearly 20 years of international experience in the oil and gas sector. As senior vice president of finance and accounting at BW Energy, I lead comprehensive functions including planning, accounting, treasury, cost control, reporting and tax compliance while nurturing a global team. 

WHY DID YOU CHOOSE A RICE EXECUTIVE MBA?

I chose the EMBA program at Rice Business because the school stands out for its academic excellence and unparalleled networking opportunities. The school’s reputation has already proven valuable, as I’ve developed relationships with faculty, students and the local community. Not to mention, the beautiful campus adds to the experience, making it an ideal place for personal and professional growth. The whole package makes Rice an exceptional choice.

Ali Athar, Executive MBA Student, with classmates

WHAT DO YOU ENJOY THE MOST ABOUT BEING A RICE MBA STUDENT?

I thrive on being surrounded by self-minded, curious and growth-oriented individuals from diverse backgrounds and professions. I greatly enjoy engaging in class discussions and being enlightened by the perspectives of highly successful professionals and entrepreneurs.

My time at Rice Business has been transformative. The outstanding faculty, engaging coursework and, most importantly, inspiring cohort of EMBA ’25 classmates have truly challenged and motivated me.

Ali Athar, Executive MBA Student, with classmates

WHAT INSPIRED YOU TO APPLY FOR THE RICE BUSINESS BOARD FELLOWS PROGRAM?

I care deeply about the community I belong to, which is why I joined the Rice Business Board Fellows program. Having previously participated in board meetings from a management perspective, I was eager to learn what it truly means to serve on a board. This passion led me to the program, where I was paired with The Bryan Museum — an opportunity that allows me to leverage my extensive background in accounting and audit, along with my social skills, to support the museum’s cause while learning from fellow board members.

WHAT ADVICE DO YOU HAVE FOR PROSPECTIVE STUDENTS?

My advice is to embrace every opportunity to learn and grow — both inside and outside the classroom. Engage actively in discussions, seek diverse perspectives and surround yourself with people who challenge you. These interactions will expand your horizons and deepen your understanding of the business world.

Additionally, don’t hesitate to get involved in extracurricular activities that align with your interests. Programs like the Rice Business Board Fellows offer a unique chance to gain hands-on experience in leadership and governance, preparing you for future challenges. Step out of your comfort zone, build your network and let your curiosity drive your success.

Inspired by Ali's story? Discover how the Rice EMBA program can help you reach your full potential — apply today!

Ali Athar is an Executive MBA student in the Class of 2025.

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Payday lending

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More than half of all payday lending fees issued in the country are paid by Texans, according to the nonprofit advocacy group the Center for Responsible Lending. Why does that happen, and what can Texans do to escape the cycle of debt?
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